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First page of Terrain-Surface-Area Cover from LiDAR: Inverse-Probability-Weighted Estimation and a Global Cramér-von Mises Lack-of-Fit Test

Terrain-Surface-Area Cover from LiDAR: Inverse-Probability-Weighted Estimation and a Global Cramér-von Mises Lack-of-Fit Test

Marco Mandap

stat.ME Nov 3, 2026 · v1 stat.AP
Definitions of terrain area density, normalized surface measure, weighted Cramér-von Mises statistic, and their exact reductions and bounds are formalized in Lean 4 with Mathlib.
Canopy cover is normally reported as a fraction of a horizontal map plane. When the domain of inference is the land surface, the appropriate target is the fraction of terrain surface area under canopy. We define this estimand on a C1 graph surface and show that it differs from vertical-projection cover by the planimetric covariance of cover with the area density, divided by the mean area density; the rumple index is a different quantity. A LiDAR pulse is recorded as a canopy return only when detection succeeds, so the naive return fraction estimates cover multiplied by the canopy detection probability. We study an inverse-probability-weighted estimator that uses that probability as the inclusion probability, and a weighted corner-averaged Cramér-von Mises lack-of-fit statistic for constant mean surface-area cover under independent canopy returns, calibrated by a parametric bootstrap. Synthetic validation on the flat plane and the Gaussian hill gives a naive bias near -0.40 and a weighted bias near 0.00; at 5000 pulses the test holds size at 0.02-0.06 across the simulated null cells and reaches power 0.79 under surface-uniform and 0.85 under plane-uniform sampling against broad slope-dependent cover, but only 0.12-0.13 against a compact hotspot. The definitions and their exact reductions are machine-checked in Lean 4. No field data yet.

Canopy cover is usually reported as a fraction of horizontal map area. On sloped terrain the relevant target may instead be the fraction of terrain surface area under canopy. LiDAR detection failures also bias the naive return fraction.

The surface-area cover estimand is defined on a C1 graph surface. It is shown to differ from planar cover by the planimetric covariance of cover with area density, divided by mean area density. An inverse-probability-weighted estimator uses the canopy detection probability as the inclusion probability. A weighted corner-averaged Cramér-von Mises lack-of-fit test for constant mean cover is calibrated by parametric bootstrap. A Lean 4/Mathlib core checks the positivity and continuity of the area density, that the normalized surface measure is a probability measure, the reduction to Lebesgue measure on flat terrain, and the weighted reductions and bounds.

In synthetic simulations the naive estimator has bias near -0.40 and the weighted estimator has bias near 0.00. At 5000 pulses the test holds size at 0.02-0.06. Its power is 0.79 under surface-uniform and 0.85 under plane-uniform sampling against slope-dependent cover, but only about 0.12 against a compact hotspot. Lean theorems depend only on standard axioms, and no field data are used.